See Post #143 above, Polaris does just that.
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MotoTex
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Meriden
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The problem with the younger demographic is that they don't have a brand loyalty developed. Breaking into that market would require having a product that performs on par or better than the competition -all of the competition, not just a hand picked few. Also, I'm not sure that a belt is going to last long on an ADV bike once the pavement goes away.
We used to have a saying that if a commissioned salesman can go without a paycheck for two years he can make a good living. Both HD and BMW have a history of trying to do something outside their area of expertise and then pulling the plug before they get established.
We used to have a saying that if a commissioned salesman can go without a paycheck for two years he can make a good living. Both HD and BMW have a history of trying to do something outside their area of expertise and then pulling the plug before they get established.
What a great thread. I think the short answer is HD must innovate or perish. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal about their financial woes about a month ago. They are definitely embattled.
The article mentioned lost market share to Indian and Vision specifically. As a whole the motorcycle industry in the US remains a very niche market. HD cannot rest on it's laurels and plan to keep it's market share much longer.
.40
The article mentioned lost market share to Indian and Vision specifically. As a whole the motorcycle industry in the US remains a very niche market. HD cannot rest on it's laurels and plan to keep it's market share much longer.
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H-D like Honda, is poised to lose market share when the offerings from other manufacturers becomes too tempting. I believe H-D will reinvent itself, but it will lose market share if Polaris continues to deliver interesting products, and other segments of motorcycling garner more interest. The demographics are stacked against H-D to rely on their "core" group of riders with the purchasing power to afford their products. As the Baby-boomers pass through the targeted demographic, their numbers will decline and there are not sufficient numbers to keep refilling those loses.
Honda was once seen as invincible, but somewhere along the way they were deemed by the motorcycle community as no longer offering "exciting" machines. In a Jan/Feb issue of a motorcycle specific magazine, the "new" VFR was trounced by three decidedly ADV/Urban SUV motorcycles. Factor in the price point for most of the Honda line-up, and there tend to be superior offerings elsewhere in the Dollar$ to HP ratio. The Africa Twin has already been described as a capable, comfortable machine, but derided for a seemingly lack of power. For over a decade it's not Honda's reliability that is brought in to question, it is the tough to quantify measure of "excitement".
In both instances it is about perception, as I would gladly own a Honda or H-D; but push comes to shove when it's your own money, and I would not be plunking down my own money for either brand at this point. With the advent of ADV/Uber commuters being recognized for all around utility and comfort, I too suspect that ADV inspired and styled motorcycles will eat into market share. The current ADV inspires the same "possibilities are endless" that RZ/RD, CB, KZ, and GS types of bikes once brought about. Those early models and their variants ushered in a plethora of new technology and subsequent offerings. The UJM was split into a multitude of focused segments, and the ADV represents a return to the UJM/jack-of -all trades ideology coupled with comfort and HP. Toss in a few miles of bad road, and 2 - 4 inches of rear suspension travel is not nearly as kind to my back as 5 - 7+ inches of travel.
Harley should highlight the slow depreciation of their motorcycles and focus on the investment aspect of what they bring to the table. H-D bikes are rebuilt, when so often UJMs are leaned up against the side of an old barn and forgotten. It's a shame really.
Honda was once seen as invincible, but somewhere along the way they were deemed by the motorcycle community as no longer offering "exciting" machines. In a Jan/Feb issue of a motorcycle specific magazine, the "new" VFR was trounced by three decidedly ADV/Urban SUV motorcycles. Factor in the price point for most of the Honda line-up, and there tend to be superior offerings elsewhere in the Dollar$ to HP ratio. The Africa Twin has already been described as a capable, comfortable machine, but derided for a seemingly lack of power. For over a decade it's not Honda's reliability that is brought in to question, it is the tough to quantify measure of "excitement".
In both instances it is about perception, as I would gladly own a Honda or H-D; but push comes to shove when it's your own money, and I would not be plunking down my own money for either brand at this point. With the advent of ADV/Uber commuters being recognized for all around utility and comfort, I too suspect that ADV inspired and styled motorcycles will eat into market share. The current ADV inspires the same "possibilities are endless" that RZ/RD, CB, KZ, and GS types of bikes once brought about. Those early models and their variants ushered in a plethora of new technology and subsequent offerings. The UJM was split into a multitude of focused segments, and the ADV represents a return to the UJM/jack-of -all trades ideology coupled with comfort and HP. Toss in a few miles of bad road, and 2 - 4 inches of rear suspension travel is not nearly as kind to my back as 5 - 7+ inches of travel.
Harley should highlight the slow depreciation of their motorcycles and focus on the investment aspect of what they bring to the table. H-D bikes are rebuilt, when so often UJMs are leaned up against the side of an old barn and forgotten. It's a shame really.
tshelfer
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You do have a good point there.
I'm not sure it is. The resale value is about the same, percentage wise, as anything else. I think it's because a 10yr old Harley (or BMW) sells for more than a comparable Japanese bike, but the original purchase price was lower on the Japanese. In similar shape, and kicking out people overvaluing their bikes, in 10 years, they both depreciate by about 50-60%.
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Perceived value is subjective and can be tricky to calculate. While offerings from the Japanese 4 tend to have a lower price point than Harley Davidson, some H-D models enjoy the cult following similar to Corvettes and Impalas from Chevy as an exmple. Specific years and models from any manufacturer can be considered more desireable than others. From my expereince, I see more smaller displacement models from the Japanese being rebuilt than large displacement machines, while Harley Davidson enjoys more of their models and specifically their engines being rebuilt.
A rusty 883 H-D still peaks more interest than a 920 Virago. Japanese bikes like the "Gamma" will always draw interest, and there is a healthy appetite for Honda CB and RC bikes, along with many other numerous classics. Because of the low price point across the over all range of models, when a Japanese bike is no longer loved, it's easier or cost effective to walk away and get another one.
A rusty 883 H-D still peaks more interest than a 920 Virago. Japanese bikes like the "Gamma" will always draw interest, and there is a healthy appetite for Honda CB and RC bikes, along with many other numerous classics. Because of the low price point across the over all range of models, when a Japanese bike is no longer loved, it's easier or cost effective to walk away and get another one.
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Without that they would have gone under years ago.
Meriden
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Apparel/General Merchandise is less than 6% of HD revenue. Parts and accessories are another 20%. The rest is motorcycles. As a comparison, 8% of Polaris sales are motorcycles and 17% are parts, accessories and apparel. At least that is what they each reported for 2014.
Chirpy
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The LiveWire will be aimed solidly at urban millennials when released. Look for it to be released with a "next-Gen" (read Musk/Tesla) battery.
Think so? Maybe priced between 7-15k?
woodsguy
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I have no idea what the "real" numbers are, guess you can't argue with stats, but I ride a lot(wife says too much), and I NEVER see a Victory/Indian in my area. I ride a different style bike granted, but still ride some of the same roads as cruisers. I see Harleys all w/e long, just saying.
woodsguy
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That's wild. I would have guessed way more.
MotoTex
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I've seen those numbers before. It didn't seem to match reality of seeing the brand, well, everywhere.
However, HD has been at it a lot longer, so there is a bigger footprint established. Plus, they may not be focusing on profit for a lot of the T-shirts and stuff seen for sale at Walmart and the like. Instead, going for saturation, getting the name placement may be much more important to them.
They could be licensing their brand for cheap and getting a lot of loyalty and advertising because of that.
Polaris brands aren't seen in the retail outlets as much as HD. This may be why it seems, at a glance, that HD is selling so much apparel. Could be they are selling significantly more, but not making much profit directly from the apparel sales? And, when one of the lovers of the T-shirts finally is ready to buy the bike, they buy the brand they have been buying.
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Meriden
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Is suspect that the numbers are accurate since the liabilities of inaccurate investor reporting are more serious than what the press face when spinning an article. (Isn't that right Jeff?) But it is one of those commonly repeated ideas that HD apparel business challenges their motorcycles as a revenue stream. The math doesn't seem right. At $50 per tee shirt, they would have to sell 500+ shirts for each $26k Ultra Classic. That $50 per shirt is likely high in reality. Based on who we see wearing HD promotional items around our bend in the River, it would be a real surprise to find that most sell for over $30, but that is just conjecture.
I'd suspect that most people don't know that Polaris owns Kolpin, ProArmor and Klim, as well as the expected Polaris branded apparel. All three are important accessory brands in their own right.
Frankly, HD has a great brand and they have been able to recover from some pretty bad times in the past. The HD Street may prove to be a good product, especially if they copy the mix and match strategy that Ducati has implemented with their Scrambler range. Also if they can pull off the Live Wire, that would be a coup. We'll see how that works.
If I were investing I would be in Polaris. They, like the Japanese, have realized that the future of off highway vehicles in the US includes four wheels as well as two and that ATVs and side-by-sides are a bigger growth market. Any trip down I10 will find more ATVs on trailers than motorcycles. Every farmer has one or two or something similar. I wish I had bought a small automatic transmission ATV for the wife rather than the DR200, simply because she could use it around the farm. (I'm open for trades by the way.) If I were buying new, I would go with Orange for the dirt and most likely BMW for the street. But if Polaris or HD came up with a midweight sports touring bike it would be worth a serious look.
I'd suspect that most people don't know that Polaris owns Kolpin, ProArmor and Klim, as well as the expected Polaris branded apparel. All three are important accessory brands in their own right.
Frankly, HD has a great brand and they have been able to recover from some pretty bad times in the past. The HD Street may prove to be a good product, especially if they copy the mix and match strategy that Ducati has implemented with their Scrambler range. Also if they can pull off the Live Wire, that would be a coup. We'll see how that works.
If I were investing I would be in Polaris. They, like the Japanese, have realized that the future of off highway vehicles in the US includes four wheels as well as two and that ATVs and side-by-sides are a bigger growth market. Any trip down I10 will find more ATVs on trailers than motorcycles. Every farmer has one or two or something similar. I wish I had bought a small automatic transmission ATV for the wife rather than the DR200, simply because she could use it around the farm. (I'm open for trades by the way.) If I were buying new, I would go with Orange for the dirt and most likely BMW for the street. But if Polaris or HD came up with a midweight sports touring bike it would be worth a serious look.
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MotoTex
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To be clear, not questioning the numbers at all.
Just saying that HD labeled attire is widely available at many sources other than HD dealerships.
They get their name out there through common retail chains by licensing the name and logo to be placed on lots of inexpensive items.
Bic lighters, belts, t-shirts, shoes, hats, pants, key chains, jewelry, Ford trucks (not one of the inexpensive items), etc.
It might be more difficult to name something they haven't put the logo on.
They have infiltrated many, many markets due to the popularity of their name and logo. The image that people want to identify with. In the end, this brings in buyers of motorcycles, as well as a lot of advertising from people who may never buy a bike and will still always have HD labeled stuff on their person.
HD gets their logo spread around, but probably doesn't make much profit on these non-dealership items, compared to the overall margin Polaris might make from sales of Klim gear, and brand t-shirts purchased at the dealer, for example.
Polaris brands don't have this parallel logo distribution chain established that HD has perfected.
HD brand has permeated the landscape and is almost as common as Coca-Cola in the frequency it can be seen on a daily basis. I could probably walk around work and see a plethora of examples being sported by non-riders.
Despite this not being a major profit item in the annual reports, the impact on brand recognition and in the long run, motorcycle sales, is significant.
No other motorcycle brand has established itself at this level of promoting themselves through fashion accessories for men, women and children.
woodsguy
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"I'd suspect that most people don't know that Polaris owns Kolpin, ProArmor and Klim, as well as the expected Polaris branded apparel. All three are important accessory brands in their own right."
I didn't know this!
I didn't know this!
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The Livewire is a super cool form-factor, but it will require a combustion engine to turn the tide. Being tethered to a "plug-in" certainly hampers the whole "Freedom", spur of the moment aspect being sold as an integral part of motorcycling. I'm a commuter, it might work for me, but the first time I get stuck somewhere because I trusted the gauges, I'm going to be irate. The gauge for the battery capacity and potential charge had better be spot on.
I like the idea of an electric bike, but I'd never buy one for the same cost or more than one with an internal combustion engine unless it was really close to equal. I'm talking equal in range, weight, power, handling, comfort, and aesthetics. I don't see that happening any time soon. I won't pay a premium just to be "green".
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Harley Davidson will face an uphill battle with the Livewire because of the price point. It's too much cost and inconvenience compared to something like a small displacement internal combustion motorcycle. A KLR or DR400SM would offer more "freedom" of movement and excel in an urban environment. Despite the café racer good looks, the Livewire is probably going to be a city machine.
Meriden
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Tesla's business model has been to start with very cutting edge, expensive electric cars and work their way down into the broader commuter market. While HD is not known for building cheap bike, what may be the big difference is the way the two business get capital. Tesla has a guy with a vision and the money to pump into that vision and HD has a bunch of stockholders looking for a return plus a history of bailing out of a project if it doesn't make a profit.
I was issued a dirtbike when I was eleven. Truth is, I wanted it so badly, I talked about dirtbikes
Every. Single. Day.
When I finally got one, that was all I did. I rode my little 100cc dirtbike all over the neighborhood, and in the woods behind it.
I don't know what makes guys like motorcycles. I know I loved them before I ever had one. My dad used to race in the late 70s, but by the time I came around, his last bike was long gone. It's not like I was ever around dirt bikes before mine.
Now that I'm a dad, albeit, to a 2 year old girl, I look back at the freedom my parents gave me and am like "HOW??
THAT SAID--- My parents made sure I always had a good bb gun, gas for my dirtbike, and plenty of nails and scrap lumber to nail up in the big oak out back to what could loosely be described as a treehouse. They also REFUSED to let me have a video game console, and we didn't even have a computer until I was well into highschool. Think post y2k, I graduated in '03.
Maybe that's what did it. I mean, the dirtbike madness waned a bit when I got my first vehicle, and realized how awesome boobs werd, but at the age of 22 I was bitten by the bug again. I'm 30 now, and its safe to say I'm friggin obsessed with bikes. Not all bikes.... I like what I like, and that's generally cafe/flat trackers, dirtbikes, enduros, and one-off custom anything. If a guy in a shed built it, I wanna build one too.
Technology has only enhanced my devotion to this sport. Talking to all you old guys, and going on rides etc. I use huge mounts of data to discover/process/store cool interesting motorcycle stuff. Without that, I wouldn't be a fraction of what I am today with this stuff.
Every. Single. Day.
When I finally got one, that was all I did. I rode my little 100cc dirtbike all over the neighborhood, and in the woods behind it.
I don't know what makes guys like motorcycles. I know I loved them before I ever had one. My dad used to race in the late 70s, but by the time I came around, his last bike was long gone. It's not like I was ever around dirt bikes before mine.
Now that I'm a dad, albeit, to a 2 year old girl, I look back at the freedom my parents gave me and am like "HOW??
THAT SAID--- My parents made sure I always had a good bb gun, gas for my dirtbike, and plenty of nails and scrap lumber to nail up in the big oak out back to what could loosely be described as a treehouse. They also REFUSED to let me have a video game console, and we didn't even have a computer until I was well into highschool. Think post y2k, I graduated in '03.
Maybe that's what did it. I mean, the dirtbike madness waned a bit when I got my first vehicle, and realized how awesome boobs werd, but at the age of 22 I was bitten by the bug again. I'm 30 now, and its safe to say I'm friggin obsessed with bikes. Not all bikes.... I like what I like, and that's generally cafe/flat trackers, dirtbikes, enduros, and one-off custom anything. If a guy in a shed built it, I wanna build one too.
Technology has only enhanced my devotion to this sport. Talking to all you old guys, and going on rides etc. I use huge mounts of data to discover/process/store cool interesting motorcycle stuff. Without that, I wouldn't be a fraction of what I am today with this stuff.
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M
mr-roboto
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Ducati XDiavel Techno-Cruiser Aimed Squarely at Harley-Davidson
What a cruiser beast with a Harley price point! However, it does have that euro-robotic look that may feel out of place with the Harley purist crowd.
Another note, farther down on the link above is an article called:
Are Harley-Davidsons Too Reliable?
Cough, cough...is that right?
....I keep hearing favorable comments about Polaris Industries which keeps expanding the product line of its recently revived Indian brand...
RB
What a cruiser beast with a Harley price point! However, it does have that euro-robotic look that may feel out of place with the Harley purist crowd.
Another note, farther down on the link above is an article called:
Are Harley-Davidsons Too Reliable?
Cough, cough...is that right?
....I keep hearing favorable comments about Polaris Industries which keeps expanding the product line of its recently revived Indian brand...
RB
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http://lanesplitter.jalopnik.com/harley-davidsons-two-new-motorcycles-are-actually-aweso-1755950865
These both look good, IMO. The softail less so, but it does have upside down forks, so it's got that going for it.
These both look good, IMO. The softail less so, but it does have upside down forks, so it's got that going for it.