Here's the deal as I see it. Honda started the whole ADV thing two decades too early. They set the bar that KTM and everyone else had to aim for in the Dakar races.
They introduced the original Africa Twin, then turned their backs on the ADV market when it didn't respond to their offerings at that time. There was no demand for this style of bike. They took it off the market and waited patiently.
Now, the time is ripe. All the other manufacturers offering models in this class have defined the genre. Considering how they have waited, I doubt that this will be a mediocre attempt at an also-ran. That isn't Honda's style.
They have been leaking tidbits about the bike for at least two years. They have been carefully keeping information from the public. There have been none of the usual spy-shots. Even after debuting the prototype at several shows worldwide. They have spent an enormous amount of time, money, and energy building the "True Adventure" hype with videos and web teasers. They are still doing this, now. Even after the official announcement they are keeping the cards close to their chest, building the hype, brilliantly.
This is not the recipe for introducing some half-baked effort.
This "non-refundable" deposit is something that could be marketed should any who have taken the bait decide otherwise. The place in line could be profitable, sold to any early-adopter who missed the opportunity and is willing to pay.
Even if the hype unfolds differently than expected the bike looks to be at least a contender on par with most of the others. But, it could be a game changer. Only time will tell if Honda is ready to back up all the mystery with a prize worth waiting for.
I'm enjoying watching it unfold. We've seen the cards they've dealt face up, and the time to show their hole cards is getting close.
Are they just bluffing? Anyone care to make any last bets?
New Tenere owners, perhaps?